The surprise resignation and “retirement” of Sanader as Prime Minister should come as no surprise to many, especially those from within his own party. Sandstone believes that overbearing pressure coming from many areas finally paralyzed Sanader thus making his resignation the best option for his party and for his eventual return to power.
Although eager to please and adroit at maintaining favorable press coverage, Sanader’s promotion of Croatia’s cooperation with the Hague tribunal and his dedication to the admission of Croatia into the EU resulted in many vows that will be difficult, if not impossible, to implement in practice, especially considering the general opposition within the majority of voters of his own Croatian Democratic Party (HDZ) to the absolute cooperation with the Hague Tribunal and to the EU requirements process.
Furthermore, the general public opinion in Croatia and her neighbors is negative towards each other and there remain open issues with respect to borders and energy, notably with Slovenia, that will make Croatia’s entry into the EU difficult. The open press speculation that Slovenia will block Croatia’s entry into the EU has only exacerbated the problem for Sanader.
Internally, Croatia has let politics override the sensible investment of public funds. These investments and the commitments of the Croatian government have led not only to an near imminent crisis in the Croatian economy but also to public distrust of the handling of public funds. This has manifested itself in a general fear that the planned privatization of Croatia’s shipyards, a national industrial symbol, could be handled in a corrupt manner that would lead to job loss and misuse of public funds. Sanader is suspected of being involved in some corrupt deals: notably the purchase of trucks for the Croatian Army and a scandal relating to the prostitution of young girls in state foster care has happened during his tenure and coincided with the replacement of the chief of police which effectively preempted any investigation.
On a personal level, Sanader has been very active and very dynamic lately and may be genuinely “tired”. There is also some speculation that his resignation is due to organized elements forcing him out with evidence of his and his party’s involvement in corruption.
As reality diverged from the platform on which Sanader positioned himself, the pressure to find a way out of the situation became increasingly great and therefore we see this drastic, although logical, measure being used by the HDZ to retain power and possibly even gain traction at the end of the year.
In the coming weeks a new government will be formed, probably led by Kosor. However, the soft tourist season, the end to the construction season, and the continued economic decline will probably lead to autumn strikes and public disorder. This will be a pretext for extraordinary parliamentary elections that would benefit the HDZ at that time. The opposition Croatian People’s Party (HNS) and President Mesic most likely recognize this and may call for immediate parliamentary elections.
In effect, with his resignation Sanader is taking many of the problems his party faces into the background with him in an attempt to pave the way for their continued strength and his own eventual resurgence – possibly as an independent candidate in a fall election.
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